Preparing for the future: teaching scenario planning at the graduate level

© The Ecological Society of America www.frontiersinecology.org W technology, and fast-growing human populations are placing unprecedented pressures on the planet (Steffen et al. 2004; MA 2005c; IPCC 2007). Are tomorrow’s environmental scientists being appropriately prepared to help address the challenges we face? Future environmental research will focus largely on established issues, such as climate change and biodiversity loss. However, the context for this work is likely to differ from that in which science has traditionally been conducted and is still predominantly taught (Funtowicz and Ravetz 1993; Gibbons et al. 1994; Ziman 2000). Environmental issues are becoming ever more politicized because of their increasing impacts on society. Consequently, the ways in which environmental problems are defined, the methods used to study them, and the interpretation of results are increasingly being scrutinized and contested. Such scrutiny also highlights the extent to which many scientific endeavors are underpinned by values and assumptions that may favor certain sectors of society above others (Bocking 2004; Sarewitz 2004). It is also becoming apparent that most environmental issues are characterized by substantial and often irreducible uncertainties (eg Pilkey and Pilkey-Jarvis 2007). This is due to the complex nature of environmental systems: they involve many interdependent components that span multiple spatial and temporal scales and are self-organizing and constantly evolving (Holling 2001; Manson 2001). These characteristics create inherent limitations for the predictability of complex systems. For example, despite substantial investment in research and tremendous growth in computing power, uncertainties in future climate change projections have not lessened appreciably over the past 30 years (Roe and Baker 2007). Such intrinsic uncertainties are being exacerbated by rapid and novel changes in drivers of environmental change, such as population growth and new technologies. High-stakes decisions and high levels of uncertainty set the stage for what has been termed “post-normal science” (Funtowicz and Ravetz 1993; Figure 1). Post-normal science involves a reframing of the relationship between science and decision making. The belief that scientists can provide certain, objective information on which to base policy is increasingly recognized as inappropriate when confronting contemporary environmental problems (Bocking 2004; Sarewitz 2004). In post-normal contexts, far-reaching societal decisions have to be made, often with considerable urgency, on the basis of information CONCEPTS AND QUESTIONS